Backlog and Percentage-of-Completion Forecast

What it demonstrates

Revenue as an output, not an input

Nothing here forecasts revenue directly. Bookings enter backlog, a completion rate converts open backlog, and revenue falls out of the conversion. That is what percentage-of-completion recognition does at portfolio level, and it is why changing a driver changes the shape of the forecast rather than just its level.

A roll-forward that ties

Each quarter opens where the last one closed, and opening plus bookings less revenue recognized equals closing on every column. It is the structure a reviewer can foot, which is the point of showing it as a schedule rather than a chart.

Cost drift lands on margin, not revenue

An increase in estimated cost at completion cannot change a contract's price, so it compresses margin on everything still open. The model separates margin at completion from realized margin and shows the gap the drift opens between them.

Scenarios move drivers together

Base, upside, and downside set all four drivers at once, and the downside deliberately pairs weaker bookings with cost overruns rather than flexing each driver symmetrically, because on a project book those arrive together.

The ratios the business is run on

Book-to-bill and backlog coverage in quarters are derived alongside the schedule, because neither is readable off a roll-forward at a glance and both are what a project business is actually steered by.

Stated simplifications

One portfolio completion rate stands in for per-contract cost-to-cost percentages, and the model says so on screen rather than leaving a reader to infer it. Modeling each contract's own estimate at completion would be more faithful without changing the shape of the answer.